The price of Guar seeds has seen a big time consolidation between Rs 4,150 per 10 quintal and Rs 4,450 from December 2018 to July 2019. Despite a significant fall in output in the current 2018-19 season (from October to September), prices were unable to breach the season's high of Rs 4,775 ( which were tested in November 2018). Around 80 percent of Guar produced in India is exported in the form of Guargum/split/meal. The US is the largest destination for Guar products, and lower exports to the nation are the chief reason for capping the potential price rise of Guar in the last eight months.
Sowing for the coming season, which is from 2019-20, has already started. But the figures are far behind the five-year average. Only 25 percent of the normal sowing area has been covered by July 24. In irrigated belts, farmers have preferred cotton to Guar due to assured returns from the fibre crop, while in the rain-fed areas of north Rajasthan, particularly Barmer, Jaisalmer and Bikaner, farmers are eagerly awaiting rains to sow Guar. Very few acres have been covered after last week's rains in northwest Rajasthan. The next two weeks will be crucial as the sowing window in these districts is till the second week of August.
Rains over Northwest India last week had raised hopes about the yield of the early sown crop, but the situation is back to normal, with dry conditions prevailing since then.
Many weather watchers are of the opinion that the monsoon will be active across India in the last week of July. If this happens, the shortfall in sowing would narrow substantially. Accordingly, prices plunged last week from Rs 4,432 and are now hovering around an important support of Rs 4,150-4,180.
The 2018-19 crop was significantly lower, at around 55 lakh bags. Guar exports to the US were also lower, counter-balancing the effect of lower production (higher prices). Carried-forward stocks should thus be around the 2017-18 level. Guar prices, having discounted the demand-supply fundamentals of the 2018-19 season, will now take direction on the basis of the 2019-20 crop. The next two weeks will be crucial from a sowing perspective and will paint a better picture regarding the size of the next year's crop.
Nevertheless, the present situation is the worst and per-hectare productivity would be on the lower side. Any fall due to increased rainfall should be considered a good buying opportunity.
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