Market Trends and the forecast for the upcoming week

Capitalstars Financial Research Pvt. Ltd.

September quarterly earnings, F&O expiry, trend in global markets, the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) will dictate market trend in the forthcoming week.

Trading could be volatile next week as traders roll over positions in the F&O segment from the near month October 2018 series to November 2018 series. The October 2018 F&O contracts expire on Thursday, 25 October 2018.

Among corporate results, HDFC Bank will declare its September quarterly result on 20 October 2018. Asian Paints will announce its September quarterly result on 22 October 2018. Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Ambuja Cements and HCL Technologies will unveil their September quarterly results on 23 October 2018. Bajaj Auto, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Wipro will declare their September quarterly results on 24 October 2018. Bharti Airtel, Maruti Suzuki India and Yes Bank will announce their September quarterly results on 25 October 2018. Dr Reddy's Laboratories, ICICI Bank and ITC will unveil their September quarterly results on 26 October 2018.

Overseas, United States new home sales report is slated on 24 October 2018. On 26 October 2018, the US final GDP reading for the third quarter as well as data on US consumer sentiment will be released.

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The equity benchmark indices are likely to witness a flat to positive opening

The  equity benchmark indices are likely to witness a flat to positive opening

Indian Indices:                                SGX Nifty is indicating a marginally positive opening for the Indian markets. Indian sdmarkets are expected to trade range bound with a positive bias in today’s session. In stock specific news, Vedanta plans to raise Rs4,500cr via NCDs. According to media reports, Larsen & Toubro is set to win EPC for a new dry dock in Kochi.

Tracking modest gains in Nifty futures on the Singapore Stock Exchange and positive trend across Asian peers. modest gains in SGX Nifty Index Futures for March delivery, which was trading at 10,177.50, up by 19.50 points or 0.19, at 11:30 AM Singapore time, also signaled a flat to positive opening for the domestic equity bourses. Dalal Street investors will react to Goldman Sachs’ forecast for India's economy on Tuesday where it downgrades its real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast on India for the year to March 2019 to 7.6% from 8% earlier in the wake of recent fraud at Punjab National Bank. It warned that this would constrain credit growth.

 

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Global Market:

·       Major Asian markets are trading in the green at present Nikkei is up 0.48%, Hang Seng is up 0.32%, while Shanghai Composite is trading marginally lower, down 0.21%.

·       US Stocks witnessed a volatile trading session before ending the session marginally in the red. The Dow edged down 0.2% to 24,682.31, the Nasdaq dipped 0.3% to 7,345.29 and the S&P 500 ended 0.2% lower at 2,711.93. The lower close on Wall Street came after the Federal Reserve announced its widely anticipated decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points from 1.5% to 1.75%. Fed reiterated its plan to raise interest rates gradually. The central bank continues to project three rate hikes in 2018.

·       European markets ended mixed yesterday with FTSE closing 0.32% lower, CAC dipped 0.24%, while DAX ended up 0.01 %.

Major Headlines of the day:

·        UltraTech Cement: The firm’s MD says we were not told about potentially suspect transactions.

·        Jaiprakash Associates: The Supreme Court has asked the firm to deposit Rs 200 crore by May 10

·        Reliance Communications: The firm has received bondholders’ approval for asset monetization plan.

·        Arvind: Adient India and the company have formed joint venture to make automotive fabric in India.

·        NMDC - Coal handling system charged to pave way for commissioning of coke oven battery at Nagarnar steel plant

Trend in FII flows:            

                                                     The FIIs were Net Value of Rs 98.44 the cash segment Wednesday  while the DIIs were Net Value of Rs 197.78 as per the provisional figures.

Securities in Ban For Trade Date 22-MAR-2018:

1.HDIL

2.IDBI

3.IFCI

4.JINDALSTEL

5.JPASSOCIAT

6.RCOM

7.SAIL

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Market opens lower; Sensex down by 137 pts;

Market opens lower; Sensex down by 137 pts;

Indian Indices:

Benchmark indices end lower, midcaps outperform. The market failed to hold on to any recovery on Thursday as benchmark indices extended selling pressure in late trade and fell half a percent each despite recovery in Asian peers and positive trade in Europe.   

SGX Nifty is trading at 10323 down by 40 Points. The Dow Jones industrial average rose on Thursday, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite closed lower as investors assessed the possibility of a trade war. Asian markets were on firm footing on the last day of the trading week as investors digested overnight developments related to global trade and an ongoing Russia investigation. The dollar firmed and stock indexes stateside closed mixed in the last session.

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Global Market:

·       Asian markets are trading in the flat at present. Nikkei is currently down 0.25%, Hang Seng is trading 0.25% lower, while Shanghai Composite is trading up 0.28%.

·       US Markets: Stocks witnessed a volatile trading session and ended on a mixed note. Dow climbed 0.5% to 24,873.6, the Nasdaq dipped 0.2% to 7,418.7, while the S&P 500 edged 0.1% lower closing at 2,747.3.

·       European markets closed in the green yesterday with the FTSE closing 0.10% higher, CAC ended 0.64% higher, while DAX ended up 0.84%.

Major Headlines of the day:

·       JSW Steel, a part of the O.P. Jindal Group, on Wednesday said that its monthly crude steel production grew 5 per cent year­on­year 

to 1.33 billion tonnes in February 2018. “The company’s crude steel production stood at 1.26 billion tonnes in February 2017,” 

JSW Steel said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange 540025 218.2

·       Ujjivan Small Finance Bank has launched 39 Unbanked Rural Centres (URCs) in the eastern states of West Bengal, Assam, Bihar, 

Jharkhand, Tripura and Orissa.

·       Corporate India announced merger and acquisition (M&A) deals worth USD 1,893 million in February this year, registering a 40 per cent increase in value terms 

over the year ago period driven by big ticket transactions.

Trend in FII flows:  The FIIs were Net Value of Rs -705.40 the cash segment Thursday  while the DIIs were Net Value of Rs 256.45 as per the provisional figures.

Securities in Ban For Trade Date 16-MAR-2018:

1.BALRAMCHIN

2.BANKINDIA

3.BEML

4.DHFL

5.TV18BRDCST

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Markets open on a flat note:-

Markets open on a flat note:-

Indian Indices:

SGX Nifty is indicating a flat opening for the Indian markets. Indian markets are expected to trade range bound with a negative bias, in-line with Asian markets. In stock specific news, TCS issued press release for extension of the partnership with Virgin Atlantic Airlines for 5 years. Zee Entertainment to make redemption (20%) of listed bonus preference shares.

The domestic equity benchmark indices are likely to witness a flat to negative opening today tracking muted trend in Nifty futures on the Singapore stock exchange and mixed global cues. 

Capitalstars financial research pvt.ltd.

Flat SGX Nifty Index Futures for March delivery, which were trading at 10,230, down by just 1.50 points, at 11:08 AM Singapore time, signalled a soft opening for the domestic equity bourses.

Global Market:

·       Asian markets drop on trade war concerns, Stocks fell in the morning trade as global trade war concerns intensified after the resignation of White House economic adviser Gary Cohn, reports Bloomberg. Overnight, the US stocks closed slightly higher. S&P 500 at 2,728 points is up 0.26%.

·       US Markets: Stocks witnessed a choppy trading session before ending the day marginally in the green. The Dow inched less than a tenth of a percent to 24,884.12, the Nasdaq climbed 0.6% to 7,372.01 and the S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 2,728.12. The choppy trading on the day was partly attributed to concerns about President Donald Trump's top economic advisor Gary Cohn resigning due to the difference in views regarding import tariffs.

·       European markets closed in the green yesterday with the FTSE closing 0.43% higher, CAC ended 0.06% higher, while DAX inched 0.19 higher%.

Major Headlines of the day:

·        Torrent Pharma readies bid for Sanofi’s European unit-Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd is readying a €2 billion (Rs16,000 crore) bid for Zentiva N.V., the generic drugs unit of France’s Sanofi.

·        ITC sets sights higher for foods brand Aashirvaad - ITC Ltd has set its sights higher for Aashirvaad, the company’s largest packaged food brand. It has set an internal target of generating Rs10,000 crore from Aashirvaad annually in five years.

·        Airtel acquires India leg of GBI submarine cable- Bharti Airtel said it has acquired India leg of Gulf Bridge International submarine cable which will boost its data carrying capacity.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were Net Value of Rs 620.08 the cash segment Tuesday while the DIIs were Net Value of Rs -734.33 as per the provisional figures.

Securities in Ban For Trade Date 07-MAR-2018:

1.DHFL

2.FORTIS

3.HDIL

4.IDBI

5.ORIENTBANK

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Market's hopes, reflected in rich multiples

UBS Nifty base case, upside and downside scenarios are 10,500, 11,900, and 8,800 respectively which implies unattractive risk-reward at the current level, even more so if uncertainty rises around the outcome and timing of the election.

The global investment bank is positive on Auto Parts, IT services, Oil & Gas, Private Bank, property, and Telecom & Media.

Capitalstars financial research pvt.ltd.

A weaker portfolio inflow could put the rupee under pressure, said the UBS report. The rupee needs a larger amount of portfolio inflow to stay afloat compared with 12 months ago.

Investors should focus more on the individual stocks rather than looking at the index. Top preferred stocks include names like Bank of Baroda, Bharti Airtel, BPCL, Cipla, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, ITC, Motherson Sumi, TCS, Titan Company etc. among others.

It has been driven by sharp deterioration in the basic balance from 1.3 percent a year ago to close to zero lately. The widest trade deficit (in January) since 2013 is not helping the cause. “We now think USD-INR could trade around 65 in the next 3 months,” said the report.

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INDIAN EQUITY MARKET WRAP UP-04 APRIL 2016

INDIAN BENCHMARKS: SENSEX CLOSES 130 POINTS UP ON RATE CUT HOPES, NIFTY 50 ABOVE 7750

The domestic equity market began the new week on a strong note, notching up over 100 points gain, powered mainly by Infosys, M&M, Bharti Airtel and Tata Motors, which rose between 4 per cent and 2 per cent. 

BSE benchmark Sensex had slipped into the red, down 49 points, in intraday trade after opening 100 points higher, but rallied in afternoon trade in line with the European markets, which opened weak but bounced back soon after.

Bajaj Auto was a clear winner on the Sensex, after the company reported 305,800 sales for March against 250,604 in the year-ago month. The stock added 1.35 per cent. M&M (up 4.29 per cent), Bharti Airtel (up 3.76 per cent), Infosys (up 3.12 per cent) and Tata Motors (up 2.24 per cent) were other big gainers on the Sensex. 

The S&P BSE Sensex closed at 25,399.65, up 130.01 points or 0.51 per cent while the NSE's Nifty50 ended at 7,758.80, advancing 45.75 points or 0.59 per cent. 

HEADLINES OF THE DAY

Geometric spurts after HCL Tech acquires IT services business

Hexaware drops as Baring Asia backs off from plans to sell stake

Bajaj Auto March 2016 sales grow 22% YoY

The crucial resistance for Nifty SPOT is now seen at 7791 and above this 7832. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7713 and next support will be 7643.

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CS ROCKING PERFORMANCE OF THE DAY-01 APRIL 2016

STOCK FUTURES:

FUTURES INTRADAY:
RELINFRA FUTURE  BUY  CALL 3  TG 
RELINFRA FUTURE  BUY  CALL 3  TG 
DIVISLAB FUTURE  BUY  CALL 3  TG (BOOKED AT 1011.70)

OPTION:
TVS MOTOR 330 CALL BUY CALL 2 TG 
IRB 240  CALL BUY CALL SL TRIGERRED 

STOCK CASH
STOCK CASH INTRADAY:
LAMBODHARA BUY CALL 1  TG   
KITEX  BUY CALL 3 TG  
IRB BUY CALL 1 TG  
BHEL BUY CALL 1 TG  

STOCK CASH  PREMIUM:
VIDEOIND BUY CALL COST EXIT 

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Equity Trading Tips
Sgx Nifty
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