Predicted Valuable Stocks of April

Predicted Valuable Stocks of April

The first half of the April series can see a pullback short covering rally, therefore strategy should be to buy the dip for a pullback rally in the first half of the April series.

The Nifty has bounced back after taking support at the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level placed at 9930 and RSI has formed a positive divergence which suggests more short covering rallies in the first half of the April series following which Index can enter into a narrow consolidation range or resume corrections.

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The first half of the April series can see a pullback short covering rally, therefore strategy should be to buy the dip for a pullback rally in the first half of the April series.However, a correction cannot be ruled out at a later stage as the overall trend remains weak at the moment.

The Nifty50 Index is trading below its 200-DEMA and 200-DMA for the first time from January 2017 onwards as it lost 3.61 percent in the month of March following a cut of 5 percent in the month of January.

Moreover, whenever the index breaks its 200-DEMA and 200-DMA following a prolonged trade above the averages, it tends to flirt around these averages before witnessing the next leg of correction.

However when you day trade, the luxury of time is taken away from you. Each day the scores are settled, forcing you to be fair and square for the day. This makes day trading a very tough profession, with a need to be highly consistent and disciplined.

Needless to say if done right, day trading can be highly rewarding. If you are getting started on day trading, there are a few aspects that you need to bear in mind.

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volatile year for Indian equities

volatile year for Indian equities

The sharp rise in global bond yields was a key factor that contributed to the recent volatility. Yields on India’s 10-year government securities also touched a four-year high in February on fears of high domestic inflation and aggressive rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. Likewise, widening of the fiscal deficit targets raised concerns of a reversal in the policy stance by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). This, coupled with the scam involving Punjab National Bank, weighed on banking shares that have significant weight in key stock indices. The reintroduction of the tax on long-term capital gains (LTCG) in the Budget and higher taxes on mutual fund investors also dampened sentiment.

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Long bond yields reflect the growth-and-inflation mix in the economy. If growth is strong, bond yields are usually rising. They also rise when inflation is going higher. The impact of these two situations is different for equities. When growth is strong, the salutary impact of higher growth on the numerator (cash flows or, more precisely, dividends) more than offsets the negative impact of the rise in the discount factor (due to higher yields) causing equity share prices to trade higher. Put another way, the confidence in the future is high, and equities are rewarded with higher multiples. The opposite is the case when bond yields are rising despite sluggish growth, i.e., due to inflation worries.

Concerns over looming trade dispute between the United States and China that weighed on global markets may impact crude oil prices too due to risk-off sentiment. Last week, Industrial Commodities fell after the US President signed a memorandum that could impose tariffs on up to $60 billion of imports from China. 

On the brighter side, earnings growth, which was a drag in the first two quarters due to demonetisation and goods and services tax (GST) rollout, was promising in quarter ending December 2017. Experts believe that an economic recovery is on its way and that should help corporate earnings grow in double digits in FY19.

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Sebi's new effect on Equity Market

Sebi's new effect on Equity Market

Regulator SEBI today decided to rationalise and strengthen the framework for equity derivatives market by facilitating greater alignment of the cash as well as futures and options segments. Besides, physical settlement for all stock derivatives would be carried out in a phased and calibrated manner, according to a release issued by SEBI after its board meeting.

Sebi announced steps to make algorithm trading more accessible and reduced the cost of buying equity mutual funds. It also proposed to introduce a new compliance framework for stocks undergoing insolvency proceedings and an “entirely new” set of buy-back regulations.

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“Out of 80 odd recommendations (of the Kotak panel), 40 were accepted without modification, 15 with modifications, eight were referred to government and other departments,” Sebi chairman Ajay Tyagi told reporters after the board meeting on Wednesday. 

“Sebi in its wisdom has taken a decision taking into account feedback and interests of all stakeholders. We must bring Indian governance standards not only on par with the best in the world but take a leadership position as well.” 

An additional criterion of average daily ‘deliverable' value in the cash market of Rs 10 has also been prescribed.The enhanced criteria need to be met for a continuous period of six months.To begin with, SEBI said that stocks which are currently in derivatives but fail to meet any of the enhanced criteria, would be physically settled.

Sebi also introduced the concept of ‘product suitability’ under which investors will have to demonstrate income or knowledge proof to deal in the derivatives segment. According to the new framework, individual investors can take free exposure to markets (both cash and derivative) only up to a certain amount which would be decided based on their total disclosed income as per tax filings. In cases investor chooses to take exposure beyond the specified limit, Sebi has directed brokers to undertake rigorous due diligence and collect appropriate documentation.

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Markets indicating a weak opening ahead of March expiry

Markets indicating a weak opening ahead of March expiry;


Indian Indices:                             
               
SGX Nifty is currently trading in the red down 48 points. Indian markets are expected to be volatile in today’s session amid March expiry. In stock specific news, Hindustan Aeronautics is set to list on the dalal street today. Fortis board approves demerger of the hospitality business.

Indian equity market is likely to open lower today, tracking weak Nifty futures on the Singapore Stock Exchange and bearish trend across the Asian markets bearish trend in the SGX Nifty Index Futures for March delivery, which was trading at 10,142, down 68 points or 0.6, at 11:20 AM Singapore time, also signaled a  negative opening for the domestic equity bourses. Volatility is likely to remain high in today’s trade ahead of expiry of futures and options contracts for the month of March today.

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The domestic equity market is closed on Thursday and Friday for local holidays. Profit booking is likely in today’s session as this is the last trading day for the current financial year before the long term capital gains tax (LTCG) kicks in from April 2, 2018.Investors will also keep a close eye on the fiscal deficit data to be released later in the day.

Global Market:

• Major Asian markets are trading in the red at present Nikkei is down 1.80%, Hang Seng is down 1.03%, while Shanghai Composite is trading 0.62%   lower.

• US Markets: Stocks witnessed a sharp selloff in the latter half of the session with Dow correcting 1.4% to 23,857.71, S&P 500 tumbled 1.7% to   2,612.62, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped 2.9 percent to 7,008.81.

• European markets closed in the green yesterday with FTSE closing 1.59% higher, CAC ended up 0.97%% while DAX ended 1.53% higher.

Major Headlines of the day:

• JMC Projects secures new orders worth Rs 634 crore
• Dilip Buildcon incorporates new SPV to undertake six laning project in Andhra Pradesh
• Fortis board approves demerger of its hospital biz
• REC transfers transmission arm to PowerGrid
• KEC International's Saudi Arabia JV becomes its subsidiary
• Capital First to raise Rs 1,500-cr via bonds to fund business growth
• RIL arm sells assets in Eagle Ford shale for USD 100 mn.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were Net Value of Rs 1063.12 the cash segment Tuesday while the DIIs were Net Value of Rs  2172.91  as per the provisional figures.

Securities in Ban For Trade Date 28-MAR-2018:

1.BALRAMCHIN
2.GMRINFRA
3.IFCI
4.JPASSOCIAT

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Markets indicating tepid start to the F&O expiry week;

Markets indicating tepid start to the F&O expiry week;

Benchmark indices closed sharply higher as the Sensex was up 469.87 points or 1.44 percent at 33,066.41 and the Nifty gained 132.65 points or 1.33 percent at 10,130.70 for today.

SGX Nifty is currently trading flat up 6 points. Indian markets are expected to trade range bound with a negative bias as traders await more clarity on the trade war, which has currently affected the global equities. In stock, specific news RIL has forged a deal to combine music platform Saavn with its own entity Jio Music for a deal worth nearly $1bn. India Bulls real-estate has divested 50% stake in India Bulls Properties and India Bulls Real Company for an enterprise value of Rs9,500cr.

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Global Market:

·       Major Asian markets are trading in the red at present Nikkei is down 0.54%, Hang Seng is down 0.26% while Shanghai Composite is trading 1.11% lower.

·       US Markets: Stocks witnessed a continuation of the selling pressure witnessing yet another volatile session. The Dow dipped 1.8% to 23,533.20, the Nasdaq plunged 2.4% to 6,992.67 and the S&P 500 fell 2.1% ending at 2,588.26. All the major indices closed at multi-month lows. A concern over the escalating trade war was the major reason for the selloff on Wall Street.

·       European markets also closed in the red on Friday with FTSE closing 0.44% lower, CAC dipped 1.41% while DAX ended 1.80% lower.

Major Headlines of the day:

·        GST: Firms fear income tax dispute over input tax credits- Indian companies fear that input tax credit claimed for GST paid on raw materials may be disputed by tax officials later and are considering setting aside funds to cover risks arising from rejection of their claims.

·        IndiGo, SpiceJet report smooth transition to T2 of Delhi airport- IndiGo and SpiceJet shifted partial operations to Terminal 2 (T2) of the Indira Gandhi International Airport in the national capital, with both airlines reporting on time departure of flights and smooth operations.

·        PNB plans to stake claim in bankruptcy proceedings of Nirav Modi’s Firestar Diamond- Punjab National Bank (PNB) plans to take part in the bankruptcy proceeding of Firestar Diamond, a group company of jewelry designer Nirav Modi who has been accused of defrauding the state-run bank of nearly Rs13,000 crore..

Trend in FII flows:  The FIIs were Net Value of Rs 1628.19 the cash segment Friday while the DIIs were Net Value of Rs -935.41 as per the provisional figures.

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Trade war effects the equation for the global market

Trade war effects the equation for the global market:-

Central banks across the globe have been moving almost in synchronized steps since 2017. One common feature of their unconventional policies was a large expansion of balance sheets and defined inflation target, although they have adopted a variety of approaches.

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Meanwhile, the recent trade spat has dented the confidence of the ECB, which otherwise has a rosy outlook for the euro area on the back of rising investments, falling debt levels of private sector and capital ratios of healthy banks. 


A vicious sell-off was also observed in major Asian stock markets since early morning today, with Japan’s Nikkei down 225 points, or 3.5% at 20,827.92, South Korea’s Kospi tumbled 2.3% to 2,438.03, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 3.2% to 30,090.32 and China’s Shanghai Composite sank 2.7% to 3,169.19 while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 skidded 1.9% to 5,824.50.

With strong growth signs visible in the global economy, major central banks have moved slowly to reduce stimulus, as inflation remains below their targets. Changes in interest rate targets have been made so far in response to various market indicators to forecast economic trends. 

 David Hensley of JP Morgan says that steps taken by Trump administration still appear to imply relatively minor macroeconomic consequences absent a significant further escalation. However, the expert noted that if Trump follows up with more aggressive measures, then those incremental steps will have repercussions. In his interview to CNBC TV18, David Hensley said that the current step of levying tariffs on imports represents 10% of total imports will have minor consequence.

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Nifty opens below 10,000, Sensex slips 450 pts on US-China trade war fears;

Nifty opens below 10,000, Sensex slips 450 pts on US-China trade war fears;

Indian Indices:                                

SGX Markets set to open gap down as trade wars escalate. SGX Nifty is currently trading at 10,001 down 116 points. Indian markets are expected to see a continuation of the selling pressure, as global markets witness steep cuts on account of a potential trade war as both US and China imposed tariffs against each other.

The US has rolled back some tariffs on other countries which is a positive and measures announced By Donald Trump are less aggressive than what we feared, said Chetan Ahya, Co-Head of Global Economics & Chief Asia Economist at Morgan Stanley in an interview to CNBC-TV18. He believes this is going to have moderate impact on trade & growth. Previous experiences indicate impact of global trade war is not severe, he believes. Benchmark indices opened sharply lower on Friday, tracking steep fall in global peers on US-China trade war worries. The Sensex fell more than 450 points and the Nifty breached 10,000-mark for the first time in 2018.About 25 shares declined for every share rising on the NSE.HCC, Union Bank, Reliance Communications, Bank of Baroda, PNB, Bank of India, Canara Bank, IVRCL, GMR Infrastructure, Nalco, JSPL and SAIL fell up to 7 percent.

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Global Market:

• Major Asian markets are trading in the red at present Nikkei is down 3.67%, Hang Seng is down 3.31% while Shanghai Composite is trading 2.21% lower.

• US Markets: Stocks witnessed heavy selling pressure in yesterday’s session with the major averages ending near the low point of the day.

• European markets also cracked yesterday with FTSE closing 1.24% lower, CAC dipped 1.4% while DAX ended  01.73 lower%.

Major Headlines of the day:

• Allahabad Bank: Bijaya Kumar Sahoo, Sarath Sura and Parthapratim Pal assume office as directors from March 22, 2018.
• Union Bank of India: CBI registers a case on a complaint filed by bank against Totem Infra.
• Cox & Kings: The company has sold 11.58% stake in subsidiary
• Shriram Transport Finance raises Rs 1830cr via bonds
• Hero Motocorp: The firm has hiked stake in Colombian jt venture to 68%

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were Net Value of Rs 161.11 the cash segment Thursday  while the DIIs were Net Value of Rs 409.89 as per the provisional figures.

Securities in Ban For Trade Date 23-MAR-2018:

1.HDIL
2.IDBI
3.IFCI
4.JETAIRWAYS
5.JINDALSTEL
6.JPASSOCIAT
7.RCOM

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The equity benchmark indices are likely to witness a flat to positive opening

The  equity benchmark indices are likely to witness a flat to positive opening

Indian Indices:                                SGX Nifty is indicating a marginally positive opening for the Indian markets. Indian sdmarkets are expected to trade range bound with a positive bias in today’s session. In stock specific news, Vedanta plans to raise Rs4,500cr via NCDs. According to media reports, Larsen & Toubro is set to win EPC for a new dry dock in Kochi.

Tracking modest gains in Nifty futures on the Singapore Stock Exchange and positive trend across Asian peers. modest gains in SGX Nifty Index Futures for March delivery, which was trading at 10,177.50, up by 19.50 points or 0.19, at 11:30 AM Singapore time, also signaled a flat to positive opening for the domestic equity bourses. Dalal Street investors will react to Goldman Sachs’ forecast for India's economy on Tuesday where it downgrades its real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast on India for the year to March 2019 to 7.6% from 8% earlier in the wake of recent fraud at Punjab National Bank. It warned that this would constrain credit growth.

 

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Global Market:

·       Major Asian markets are trading in the green at present Nikkei is up 0.48%, Hang Seng is up 0.32%, while Shanghai Composite is trading marginally lower, down 0.21%.

·       US Stocks witnessed a volatile trading session before ending the session marginally in the red. The Dow edged down 0.2% to 24,682.31, the Nasdaq dipped 0.3% to 7,345.29 and the S&P 500 ended 0.2% lower at 2,711.93. The lower close on Wall Street came after the Federal Reserve announced its widely anticipated decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points from 1.5% to 1.75%. Fed reiterated its plan to raise interest rates gradually. The central bank continues to project three rate hikes in 2018.

·       European markets ended mixed yesterday with FTSE closing 0.32% lower, CAC dipped 0.24%, while DAX ended up 0.01 %.

Major Headlines of the day:

·        UltraTech Cement: The firm’s MD says we were not told about potentially suspect transactions.

·        Jaiprakash Associates: The Supreme Court has asked the firm to deposit Rs 200 crore by May 10

·        Reliance Communications: The firm has received bondholders’ approval for asset monetization plan.

·        Arvind: Adient India and the company have formed joint venture to make automotive fabric in India.

·        NMDC - Coal handling system charged to pave way for commissioning of coke oven battery at Nagarnar steel plant

Trend in FII flows:            

                                                     The FIIs were Net Value of Rs 98.44 the cash segment Wednesday  while the DIIs were Net Value of Rs 197.78 as per the provisional figures.

Securities in Ban For Trade Date 22-MAR-2018:

1.HDIL

2.IDBI

3.IFCI

4.JINDALSTEL

5.JPASSOCIAT

6.RCOM

7.SAIL

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