Market's hopes, reflected in rich multiples

UBS Nifty base case, upside and downside scenarios are 10,500, 11,900, and 8,800 respectively which implies unattractive risk-reward at the current level, even more so if uncertainty rises around the outcome and timing of the election.

The global investment bank is positive on Auto Parts, IT services, Oil & Gas, Private Bank, property, and Telecom & Media.

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A weaker portfolio inflow could put the rupee under pressure, said the UBS report. The rupee needs a larger amount of portfolio inflow to stay afloat compared with 12 months ago.

Investors should focus more on the individual stocks rather than looking at the index. Top preferred stocks include names like Bank of Baroda, Bharti Airtel, BPCL, Cipla, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, ITC, Motherson Sumi, TCS, Titan Company etc. among others.

It has been driven by sharp deterioration in the basic balance from 1.3 percent a year ago to close to zero lately. The widest trade deficit (in January) since 2013 is not helping the cause. “We now think USD-INR could trade around 65 in the next 3 months,” said the report.

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Stocks to focus for today

Market Now: Over 20 stocks hit fresh 

Equity benchmarks erased the gains of opening session due to selling in bank, pharma and financial stocks. 

GAIL, Tata Consultancy ServicesBSE 0.58 %, Bharti AirtelBSE 1.33 %, Hindustan Unilever and Oil & Natural Gas Corporation were among the top gainers on the NSE, while Ambuja Cements, State Bank of India, Indiabulls Housing Finance, Axis Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank BSE -0.94 % were among the top losers. 

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Over 20 stocks, including Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar, Gitanjali GemsBSE -4.87 %, Lakshmi Vilas Bank, Oriental Bank of CommerceBSE -2.15 % and Punjab National BankBSE -9.03 % hit fresh 52-week lows on the NSE during Tuesday's trade. 

IT, metal, FMCG and auto indices were marginally up, while all other sectoral indices were in the red on the NSE. 

MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator, and is the difference between the 26-day and 12-day exponential moving averages. A nine-day exponential moving average, called the signal line, is plotted on top of the MACD to reflect ‘buy’ or ‘sell’ opportunities. 

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Sensex surges over 300 pts, Nifty ends 9 pts short of 10,500

Sensex surges over 300 pts, Nifty ends 9 pts short of 10,500
India’s stock market closed on a positive note on Friday with Sensex surging over 300 points and Nifty ending just 9 points short of 10,500-mark led by a value-buying in shares of HDFC Bank, RIL, Tata Steel, Sun Pharma, ICICI Bank, ITC, SBI, L&T, TCS, Axis Bank, Yes Bank, HDFC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Airtel and ONGC. The S&P BSE Sensex amassed 348.1 points to hit a day’s high of 34,167.6 before settling up 322.65 points at 34,142.15 and broader Nifty 50 advanced 116.4 points to hit day’s high of 10,499.1 before ending 108.35 points higher at 10,491.05. Indian equities inched higher on Friday after the five-day long subdued activity under subsumed volatility as volatility indicator — India Vix — declined 4.24% to finish at 14.2025.




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A market-wide buying was seen in the Indian stock markets today as all the sectoral and broader market indices ended in green with Nifty Midcap 50, Nifty Metal and Nifty Pharma rising 2-4% while Nifty 100, Nifty 200, Nifty 500, Nifty Mid100 Free, Nifty Small100 Free, Nifty Bank, Nifty Financial Services, Nifty IT, Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Private Bank also advanced up to 2%. Among the ‘A’ group shares of BSE, stocks of JP Associates, Fortis Healthcare, Mindtree, Kaveri Seed Company and Radico Khaitan gained 7-18% while the shares of Jubilant Lifesciences, Vakrangee, Siemens and IIFL plunged 2-11% today.
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Market seen consolidation; FII sells Rs 5781.98 cr. equity:-

Equity benchmarks have been oscillating within last two weeks’ broad range of 10600-10300, indicating consolidation after the recent sharp decline of 8%.

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Going forward, we expect the market to consolidate and form a good base in the range of 10300–10600. However, we believe this consolidation will make markets healthier and offer an incremental buying opportunity, said Dharmesh Shah of ICICIDirect.com Research.

Indian indices seen a consolidation for the week ended February 23 amid no major cues from domestic as well as international markets.

The index rebounded from the oversold territory and is under the process of forming base near the lower band of broader consolidation range around 10300.

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Some positive move of market today

Markets indicate a marginally positive opening, in-line with Asian markets

Indian Indices:

SGX Nifty is indicating a positive for the Indian markets. Indian markets are expected to trade range bound, as traders await fresh triggers. In stock specific news, I-T dept attaches Gitanjali Gems's SEZ property in Hyderabad worth Rs1,200 cr in PNB fraud case. Fortis Bank is set to acquire 26% stake in Equirus capital . Asian shares gained in morning trade as comments from a US Federal Reserve official eased worries that the central bank might raise rates more aggressively this year, reports Reuters. Overnight, US stocks closed slightly higher. S&P 500 at 2,703 points is up 0.1%.

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Global Market:

·       Asian markets are trading in the green at present. Nikkei is currently up 0.29%, Hang Seng is trading 1.05% higher, while Shanghai Composite is up 0.25%.

·       US Markets: US Markets: Wall Street ended on a mixed note in yesterday’s session. The Dow climbed 0.7% to 24,962.48, S&P 500 inched up 0.1% to end at 2,703.96, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq edged modestly lower, closing at 7,210 down 0.1%. On the US economic front, a report released by the Labor Department showed a modest decline in first- time claims for US unemployment benefits in the week ended February 17th, which surprised most economists who had exacted it to remain unchanged.

Major Headlines of the day:

·        Bhushan Infosys files counterclaim against former CFO- After submitting an application to resolve its former chief financial officer Rajiv Bansal’s severance pay issue, Infosys has filed a counter-suit for Rs100 crore, alleging that he did not fulfil his obligations and breached trust.

·        Adani Transmission bags Rajasthan project, Adani Transmission said it has received a letter of intent from PFC Consulting Ltd, an arm of Power Finance Corporation, to construct, own, operate and maintain an inter-state transmission project in Rajasthan.

·        Fortis Healthcare founders Malvinder Mohan Singh and Shivinder Mohan Singh said they are trying to get Fortis Healthcare back on track even as they relinquished their board positions.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were Net Value of Rs -2335.34  the cash segment Thursday while the DIIs were Net Value of Rs 1059.42 as per the provisional figures.

Securities in Ban For Trade Date 23-FEB-2018:

NILL..

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Market Prediction for the whole month

Markets expected to be volatile ahead of Feb Expiry;

Indian Indices:

The Indian equity benchmark indices are likely to open on a negative note today amid muted trend in Nifty futures on the Singapore stock exchange and soft cues from other Asian peers. negative SGX Nifty Index Futures for February delivery, which were trading at 10,357, down by 45 points or 0.43%at 11:24 AM Singapore time, signalled a flat to negative opening for the domestic equity bourses. Volatility is likely to remain high in today session as traders will roll their position from February series contract to March series contract on expiry today.

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On the Economy front

ØThe markets may react to a report that India's economic growth is likely to be in the range of 6.5

     

Ø  percent this fiscal. Further, EPFO lowered the rate of interest on employees provident fund to 8.55% for 2017­18, from 8.65% in the previous fiscal.

PREVIOUS DAY ROUNDUP (DOMESTIC)

ØSnapping three day losing streak, the Indian equities ended higher on Wednesday, undermining weak cues from Asian peers, led by 

rally in IT and Teck stocks after Nasscom said the country’s IT exports could grow between 7 and 9 per cent in 2018/­19

Global Market:

·       Asian markets are also trading mixed at present. Nikkei is currently down 1.25%, Hang Seng is trading 1.12% lower, while Shanghai Composite is up 1.40%.

· US Markets: Wall Street witnessed selling pressure in yesterday’s trade. The Dow fell 0.7% to 24,797.78, the Nasdaq dipped 0.2% to 7,218.23 and the S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 2,701.33. The lower close on Wall Street came as traders expressed concerns after the minutes of the Fed's January meeting indicated the central bank still plans to raise interest rates three times in 2018.

Major Headlines of the day:

·        Bhushan Power lenders ask Tatas to revisit conditions, The consortium of lenders to Bhushan Power & Steel has asked Tata Steel to waive certain conditions in its offer for the company.

·        Tata may sell auto components unit Tata Auto Comp Systems, Tata group is planning to sell its automotive parts manufacturing company Tata Auto Comp Systems Ltd, reports Mint. The group is currently in talks to hire an investment bank to manage the sale.

·        United Spirits set to auction Mallya’s Mumbai house, United Spirits Ltd is set to invite bids for its sea-facing mansion called Niladri on Napean Sea road in South Mumbai, reports Mint. Former chairman Vijay Mallya has often used the property, priced at around Rs300 crore, as his Mumbai residen.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were Net Value of Rs -1214.18  the cash segment Thursday while the DIIs were Net Value of Rs 1375.48 as per the provisional figures.

Securities in Ban For Trade Date 22-FEB-2018:

1.BALRAMCHIN

2.FORTIS

3.GMRINFRA

4.IFCI

5.JISLJALEQS

6.JPASSOCIAT

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Sensex opens 100 points higher, Nifty reclaims 10,400

Sensex opens 100 points higher, Nifty reclaims 10,400; IT gains post rupee move;

 Indian Indices:

The domestic equity benchmark indices are likely to open on a positive note today despite mixed cues from global markets. firm SGX Nifty Index Futures for February delivery,which was trading at 10,430.50, up by 65 points or 0.63at 11:22 AM Singapore time, also signaled a higher opening for the domestic equity bourses.The domestic equity market is expected to remain volatile this week ahead of February F&O expiry due this Thursday.

The equity market has begun the day on a positive note, with the Sensex gaining over 100 points, while the Nifty reclaimed 10,400. The Sensex is up 168.98 points or 0.50% at 33872.57, while the Nifty is up 46.60 points or 0.45% at 10407.00. The market breadth is positive as 358 shares advanced, against a decline of 138 shares, while 81 shares are unchanged. In case of stocks, IT stocks are reacting positively to the rupee's depreciation. TCS and Infosys are among Sensex gainers. Coal India, Sun Pharma and ONGC are the top losers.

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On the Economy front

 Ø Union Cabinet yesterday approved a new law to ban unregulated deposits to prevent duping of gullible investors through Ponzi 

   schemes and approved changes to the chit fund law.

Ø Government approved the methodology for auctioning coal blocks for commercial mining by the private sector, a move that would end 

   monopoly of Coal India.

On the Stock front

Ø Shares of Eros International will remain in focus in today’s trade as Reliance Industries has agreed to acquire 5 per cent stake in media 

firm Eros International, through a subsidiary, for USD15share.

Ø Reliance and Eros International Media, part of Eros International have agreed to a jointly produce and consolidate content from across the country.

PREVIOUS DAY ROUNDUP (DOMESTIC)

Ø The Indian equities ended lower for the third straight session on Tuesday, paring early gains, tracking weak cues from Asian peers, 

  due to sharp selling in the final hour of the day’s trade.

 Global Market:

· Major Asian markets are also trading in the green at present. Nikkei is currently up 0.63%, Hang Seng is trading 0.93% higher while Shanghai Composite is up 0.45%.

 · US Markets: Major Indices showed a lack of direction over the course of the trading session on Tuesday before ending the session in the red. The Dow slumped 1% ending at 24,964.76, the Nasdaq edged down 5.16 points to 7,234.31 and the S&P 500 fell by 15.96 points closing at  2,716.26

·European markets also closed in the green yesterday with CAX was up 0.64% and DAX closed 0.82% higher while FTSE closed flat down 0.01%,

 Major Headlines of the day:

· Bank Of India-Gets shareholders' nod to issue fresh capital as tier-I/tier-II bonds for pref shrs for amount up to Rs 10,000 cr, Gets shareholders' nod to issue shares worth RS 6,975 cr to govt

· Reliance Industries, Eros International PLC, Reliance invests in 5% stake of Eros for USD 48.75mn, To set up 1000cr corpus to produce content.

· Max India, Max Healthcare, Company’s equal JV, life healthcare group holdings ltd initiates preliminary discussions with company to explore possibility of acquisition of Life healthcare, shares in max healthcare institute limited by the company.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were Net Value of Rs -850.35  the cash segment Tuesday while the DIIs were Net Value of Rs 1437.24 as per the provisional figures.

Securities in Ban For Trade Date 21-FEB-2018:

1.BALRAMCHIN

2.DISHTV

3.FORTIS

4.GMRINFRA

5.IFCI

6.JISLJALEQS

7.JPASSOCIAT

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